2026 World Cup two-stage simulation

Compact group-stage and knockout forecast / Scenario: C01

Weighted champion probabilities

Match-box percentages are matchup-conditional win probabilities; the champion-box percentage is the scenario-conditional champion probability for the displayed winner.
1Spain
9.6%
2Argentina
8.5%
3Colombia
6.3%
4France
6.3%
5Brazil
5.9%
6Ecuador
4.5%
7England
4.2%
8Mexico
4.0%
9Japan
3.3%
10Portugal
3.2%
11Turkey
3.0%
12Morocco
2.9%

Group-stage qualification

2026 World Cup two-stage simulation Group-stage qualification Scenario: C01 / Annex C: 37 / advancing third-place groups: C/D/E/F/G/I/K/L Group A 1 Mexico QUALIFIED 2 South Korea QUALIFIED 3 Czech Republic OUT 4 South Africa OUT Group B 1 ✦ Canada QUALIFIED 2 Switzerland QUALIFIED 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina OUT 4 Qatar OUT Group C 1 Brazil QUALIFIED 2 ★ Morocco QUALIFIED 3 Scotland BEST 3RD 4 Haiti OUT Group D 1 ★ Turkey QUALIFIED 2 United States QUALIFIED 3 Paraguay BEST 3RD 4 ★ Australia OUT Group E 1 Ecuador QUALIFIED 2 Germany QUALIFIED 3 Ivory Coast BEST 3RD 4 ★ Curaçao OUT Group F 1 Japan QUALIFIED 2 Netherlands QUALIFIED 3 ★ Tunisia BEST 3RD 4 Sweden OUT Group G 1 Belgium QUALIFIED 2 Iran QUALIFIED 3 Egypt BEST 3RD 4 ★ New Zealand OUT Group H 1 Spain QUALIFIED 2 Uruguay QUALIFIED 3 Cape Verde OUT 4 Saudi Arabia OUT Group I 1 France QUALIFIED 2 ★ Senegal QUALIFIED 3 Norway BEST 3RD 4 Iraq OUT Group J 1 Argentina QUALIFIED 2 Austria QUALIFIED 3 ★ Algeria OUT 4 Jordan OUT Group K 1 Colombia QUALIFIED 2 Portugal QUALIFIED 3 ★ Dem. Rep. of Congo BEST 3RD 4 Uzbekistan OUT Group L 1 England QUALIFIED 2 Croatia QUALIFIED 3 ★★ Panama BEST 3RD 4 ★ Ghana OUT

Round of 32

2026 World Cup two-stage simulation Round of 32 Scenario: C01 / Annex C: 37 M73 South Korea Switzerland 56.7% Winner: Switzerland M74 Ecuador 57.1% Paraguay Winner: Ecuador M75 Japan 51.6% ★ Morocco Winner: Japan M76 Brazil 59.5% Netherlands Winner: Brazil M77 France 72.5% ★ Tunisia Winner: France M78 Germany ★ Senegal 51.0% Winner: Senegal M79 Mexico 67.5% Scotland Winner: Mexico M80 England 62.5% ★ Dem. Rep. of Congo Winner: England M81 ★ Turkey 58.0% Ivory Coast Winner: Turkey M82 Belgium Norway 50.9% Winner: Norway M83 Portugal 52.4% Croatia Winner: Portugal M84 Spain 68.8% Austria Winner: Spain M85 ✦ Canada 60.8% Egypt Winner: Canada M86 Argentina 62.1% Uruguay Winner: Argentina M87 Colombia 64.8% ★★ Panama Winner: Colombia M88 United States 57.2% Iran Winner: United States

Knockout bracket from R16

2026 World Cup two-stage simulation Knockout bracket from R16 Scenario: C01 / Annex C: 37 Match-box percentages are matchup-conditional win probabilities; the champion-box percentage is the scenario-conditional champion probability for the displayed winner. R16 Quarterfinal Semifinal Semifinal Quarterfinal R16 Final Third-place match Ecuador France 52.5% Switzerland Japan 53.9% Portugal Spain 61.1% ★ Turkey Norway 51.5% France 55.8% Japan Spain 64.1% Norway France Spain 56.1% Brazil 57.1% ★ Senegal Mexico 54.3% England Argentina 63.6% United States ✦ Canada Colombia 66.4% Brazil 58.7% Mexico Argentina 55.2% Colombia Brazil Argentina 53.8% Spain Final win 51.2% Argentina France Brazil 50.7% Champion Spain Conditional champion probability: 9.6%